To control redistricting, Republicans must hold on to the Florida Legislature. Here are Democrats' top targets:

Among the most consequential elections that will shape political power in Florida for the next decade will be the dozen or so state legislative races that determine if Republicans maintain control of the Legislature or if Democrats can flip the House or the Senate.

Next year, the Florida Legislature will redraw the state's congressional and legislative maps. How those maps are drawn can drastically change the future of state politics.

Yet despite making some gains in 2018, flipping either chamber will pose a herculean task for Florida Democrats.

They reduced Republicans' advantage in the state Senate from 25-15 to 23-13, and they reduced Republicans' advantage in the state House from 79-41 to 73-47.

There's still a long way to go before Democrats actually threaten Republican control, and with so many potential seats to target, Democrats are split on how to invest their time and money.

If Democrats rely on Hillary Clinton's results in 2016, then there are nine possible House districts and one possible Senate district they could target, all of which are in Miami-Dade, save one Palm Beach seat.

If Democrats rely on Andrew Gillum's or Bill Nelson's results in 2018, when most of those Miami-Dade seats swung, by as much as 20 points, toward Republicans, then Democrats might invest time and money elsewhere in the state.

And if Democrats rely on the 2018 House races, then they'd focus on the 11 Republican-held house districts that came within a five-point margin of flipping last cycle.

Republicans, for their part, have said their focus is on winning the four Democratic-held house districts that President Trump won in 2016. Republicans will also benefit as two of those seats have incumbents who ran instead for Congress.

In a statement, former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who is leading national Republican efforts on state legislatures, said, "Republicans are ready to fight back and protect the legislative majorities that have been critical to Florida’s rise as one of the best states in the country to raise a family or start a business. It’s all on the line in this election cycle."

At top of mind for Republicans is Sarasota's House District 72, which Democrats won despite Trump, Nelson and Gillum all losing there, and Hillsborough County's House District 59. Both representatives ran for Congress this year, creating an open race for two seats that Trump won.

For Democrats, the list is much longer. Gainesville's District 21 voted for Gillum and Nelson, even as it re-elected a Republican representative.

Jacksonville's District 15, which has the largest black population of any Republican-held seat in the Legislature, came within two points of electing a white Democrat in 2018. This time, Tammyette Thomas, a Black pastor, is running.

And along Palm Beach's and Broward's coasts, Districts 89 and 93 both saw Gillum and Nelson win the area.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has acknowledged it views Florida as an "expansion target," compared to more critical legislatures it sees as having a better chance of flipping.

"In the Florida House, we feel really good about picking up some seats," said Christina Polizzi, spokeswoman for the committee. "Majorities are made one seat at the time, and we feel really confident in our ability to make some gains this year."

Michael Binder, a political scientist and pollster at the University of North Florida, said Republicans have been effective in South Florida at tying even moderate Democrats to socialism, something that polls show is pushing Hispanic voters toward Republicans.

"The Democratic Party in Florida is not particularly organized," Binder said. "You don’t have that same sustained effort"

He said while it's important to consider both the 2016 and 2018 results, COVID-19 will throw prognosticators' predictions even more out of whack then normal.

"This is going to be so different," he said. "These different parts of the state have been impacted dramatically differently by the coronavirus."

Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat who flipped an Orlando House district in 2018 and has taken a prominent role in the party, agreed with that.

"So much of the Democratic Party comes out of South Florida that there’s a disconnect to what’s happening around the state," she said. Parts of Central Florida and North Florida have trended more strongly toward Democrats. "For the last two years, the last four years, a lot has changed. There were so many close races in 2018 where Democrats barely lost and Republicans barely won."

Chris King, who ran for lieutenant governor alongside Andrew Gillum in 2018, has focused his efforts particularly on the seven Republican-held House districts that Gillum and he won in 2018.

Those races include five in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, another in Volusia and one that spans from Gainesville to the Gulf Coast.

According to Dave's Redistricting App, a website that allows for analysis of different electoral maps, there were two more districts that were essentially tied in the 2018 governor's race.

"We’d love to avoid having to sue the governor and the legislature like we did last time [over redistricting] where the Florida state senate had to come out and say what they did was unconstitutional," King said in an interview. "That’s too much money and too much time and pain. We’d love to have enough members up there in the house and senate where they’d execute the will of the fair districts amendment."

Because only half of the senate's 40 seats are up for election — plus one special election — there are two main targets for Democrats, District 9 in Seminole County and District 39 in Miami-Dade County. If they won both, Republicans would hold a 21-19 majority.

If Democrats also won the special election in District 20, which voted for Trump by nine points and for Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott in 2018 by five points, the chamber would split 20-20.

The senate, however, has largely been seen as the more moderate chamber and one more willing to pass Democratic-friendly policies like criminal justice reform. With a closer margin, King and other Democrats said in interviews, moderate Republican senators might hold more power to force the House to compromise.

Eskamani said that even if they don't flip the Legislature, shrinking Republicans' margins will give Democrats more opportunities to use procedures to prevent efforts to advance legislation by waiving rules.

"Power comes in all shapes and sizes," she said. That said, she added, "we need an overwhelming majority."