Ernst as flip-flopper? Greenfield as court packer? SCOTUS vacancy jolts already hot Senate race
The Saturday after U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, a steady stream of worried Democrats filed up to the voter registration booth Mary McAdams was staffing in Ankeny.
“Every time I sat down in my chair I had to stand right back up again,” said McAdams, who is chair of the Ankeny Area Democrats. “People were saying, ‘I've got to do something. I've got to do something. I'm really worried now. I was worried before, but I'm really worried now.’”
Ginsburg’s death Sept. 18 sent shock waves through the American political world as Republicans readied to name her replacement before Election Day — a move that would tilt the balance of the court firmly in their favor for possibly decades to come. Even as Democrats mourned the passing of a liberal icon, they worried openly and fervently what that shift could mean for issues like abortion access.
The confirmation fight will play out in the U.S. Senate, putting a spotlight on races across the country that could swing the chamber’s majority in November.
How SCOTUS fight may influence Ernst-Greenfield Senate race in Iowa
In Iowa — where Republican Sen. Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield are locked in a close contest — both parties are claiming the development will energize their voters, even as polling and fundraising numbers appear to benefit Democrats.
Republicans historically have been more likely to say that the courts are a key issue as they decide their votes, said Kedron Bardwell, the chair of the political science department at Simpson College.
“It's not that this won't help Republicans some,” Bardwell said. “It's just that they already max out (their enthusiasm around this issue). With Democrats, typically it falls a little farther down the list in terms of their priorities, and so they have more to gain.”
A Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted September 18-20 immediately after Ginsburg’s death showed that 60% of Democratic voters said the Supreme Court was “very important” in shaping how they vote — a 12 percentage-point jump compared to the previous week. Among Republicans, the number increased by 4 percentage points from 50% to 54%.
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Still, Republicans Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said the issue is “pure electricity” for the Republican base and will help to counterbalance the enthusiasm Democrats feel for defeating Republican President Donald Trump.
“Now we've got some positive energy coming at our base twofold,” he said. “One is this president, and now, two, it's this vote on the Supreme Court. So I think this is another jolt to our base, and I think it will be very helpful in turnout.”
The most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted just before Ginsburg’s death, showed Greenfield leads Ernst by 3 percentage points, 45% to 42%. That falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Democrats shatter fundraising records
In the hours after Ginsburg’s death, Democrats shattered fundraising records through Act Blue, a donation-processing site that helps Democratic candidates and groups raise money, funneling $95 million into the site in less than two days.
Donors’ focus on flipping the Senate was highlighted by the “Get Mitch or Die Trying” fund, which is aimed at removing U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell as Republican majority leader. McConnell is up for re-election, and Democrats would love to unseat him, but the group's main focus is flipping the chamber to Democrats’ favor.
The fund was organized by Crooked Media, a political media company founded by former Obama administration officials. It’s a one-stop shop for people to donate to Democrats in 14 targeted Senate races, including Greenfield.
Before Ginsburg’s death, the fund had generated about $3.5 million, organizer Tommy Vietor said in an interview. As of Thursday, it had topped $24 million — about $2 million of which is going directly to Greenfield’s campaign.
“RBG's death just crystallized that things people care about deeply are on the ballot this year,” Vietor said, rattling off issues such as the Affordable Care Act, the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate emissions, and abortion rights. “… The conventional wisdom is that Republicans are motivated by court battles. I think this showed that Democrats understand the stakes this time around and that the U.S. Senate is key to our ability to put forward qualified judicial nominees.”
Greenfield’s campaign declined to say how much it had raised overall since Ginsburg’s death. But the $2 million from the “Get Mitch” fund alone is substantial. In her most recent financial filing, which covered the six weeks ending June 30, Greenfield’s campaign reported raising $4.4 million.
“Over the last few days, our campaign has seen a major surge in online search traffic, gained nearly 10,000 followers on social media platforms, while a big boost in volunteer sign-ups made this a record-setting weekend for sending texts and making phone calls to voters,” Greenfield campaign spokesman Sam Newton said in a statement.
WinRed, a Republican online fundraising platform similar to ActBlue, did not return a request for comment on fundraising. The National Republican Senatorial Committee also did not disclose its fundraising numbers.
The Judicial Crisis Network, which pushes for conservative judges, and the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List each plan to run ads specifically about the Supreme Court battle, officials for the groups told the New York Times.
Susan B. Anthony List Vice President for Government Relations Marilyn Musgrave told the Des Moines Register the group will be focusing their supporters and messaging toward senators like Ernst who sit on the Judiciary Committee. But she couldn't say whether Iowa would be targeted specifically.
Musgrave, a Republican and former congresswoman from eastern Colorado praised Ernst's position opposing abortion and predicted her “courage will be rewarded” by anti-abortion voters motivated by Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.
"We didn't have to pressure (Ernst),” Musgrave said. “It's letting the voters know, particularly those persuadable voters, that she is supportive of the president's nominee and that it's very important on the issue of life."
Democrat-aligned groups were already substantially outspending those backing Republicans in Iowa. According to data from the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics, Iowa's is the second-most expensive Senate race in the country when it comes to advertising.
Groups aligned with Democrats have claimed about $90.8 million worth of television, radio and digital ads. Republicans have reserved about $64.7 million.
Greenfield focuses on health care
Despite a rise in Democratic fundraising, Iowa Democrat Patty Judge is cautious about the extent to which the issue will affect voter behavior.
“It certainly did not make any difference in '16,” she said.
Judge, a former Iowa lieutenant governor, ran against Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley in 2016 as another Supreme Court battle unfolded around Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland.
At the time, Grassley was chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and led Republican efforts to block Garland’s confirmation to the bench. It roiled Democrats like Judge, who were furious. She campaigned with the slogan, “I’m the judge Chuck Grassley can’t ignore.” Grassley won by 24 percentage points.
“I hope the public is paying attention, but I also hope that they don't lose sight of the other issues because of the court situation,” Judge said.
Judge, who lives in Albia, said voters in rural areas like hers are open to supporting Democrats when they focus on issues like the economy, jobs and schools. Campaigning too heavily on protecting abortion access through Roe v. Wade can be a turnoff, she said.
According to the most recent Register Iowa Poll, taken before Ginsburg’s death, the economy remains the most important issue to a plurality of likely voters as they decide their choices this fall, including a plurality of those who describe themselves as independent. Greenfield leads among independents 47% to 32%, the poll found.
Greenfield has pushed to keep the focus on what a conservative court could do to overturn the Affordable Care Act and potentially reverse more than a decade of Democrats’ work on health care — a politically safer space than the court’s view on abortion rights as she seeks to sway independent voters.
“Since day one of this general election, Theresa has called on Sen. Ernst to take meaningful action against the ongoing anti-ACA lawsuit, which is set to be before the U.S. Supreme Court in less than 50 days,” Newton, Greenfield’s spokesperson, said in a statement. “As Sen. Ernst continues to threaten our health care, the Supreme Court vacancy will be a clear reminder to all Iowans that the future of Medicaid expansion, protections for pre-existing conditions and coverage for prescription drugs are on the ballot this November.”
Ernst's stances on SCOTUS nominations, from 2016 to now
While Greenfield focuses primarily on health care and the Affordable Care Act, the Iowa Democratic Party and other groups supporting her have been more pointed in their direct criticism of Ernst.
Though Ernst said after the 2016 Garland confirmation fight that she would oppose confirming any Supreme Court justice in an election year, even one appointed by a Republican president, she has since altered course. In July, Ernst said she would support confirming a nominee this year, even if Trump loses re-election. And this week, after Ginsburg’s death, she again said that she supports moving forward.
"Once the president puts forward his nominee for the Supreme Court, I will carry out my duty — as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee — to evaluate the nominee for our nation’s highest court,” she said in a statement Monday.
Bardwell, the Simpson College professor, said that sometimes these types of flip-flops don’t hurt politicians because voters have such cynical views of how politicians behave.
“I think the problem for Ernst is she ran on this whole idea of ... being a truth teller — someone from the outside who would go and shake up Washington and ‘make 'em squeal,’” he said, citing a memorable phrase from advertising in her first campaign. “I think (voters) look at that and they see the same old Washington politics. They're seeing someone who says one thing but then finds a reason for political objectives to do another. And I think that's where it hurts her.”
Ernst and her supporters have mostly disregarded the criticism.
“The people on the left that are criticizing (Ernst and Grassley) were not going to ever vote for them in the first place,” said Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP chair.
Greenfield does not support court packing
Instead, the Ernst campaign has gone on the offensive, trying to tie Greenfield to a growing push among some progressives to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court — an idea often referred to as court packing.
“Theresa Greenfield is the handpicked candidate of the radical left, hiding behind millions in liberal special interest money,” said Ernst campaign spokesperson Brendan Conley. “Now, liberals like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Chuck Schumer are counting on Greenfield to help pack the court with judges who will advance their radical agenda of disastrous environmental regulations and strip away Second Amendment rights. Greenfield is perfect for California or New York, but she’s far too liberal for Iowa.”
SCOTUS fight: Harkin suggests expanding the Supreme Court
It's part of a broader push by the campaign to tie Greenfield — who has mostly run as a moderate Democrat — to the more liberal wing of her party.
The most recent Register Iowa Poll shows about one in three likely voters — 34% — say Greenfield’s political views are too liberal. That includes 66% of Republicans and 5% of Democrats.
However, a plurality of likely voters — 42% — say Greenfield’s political views are “about right” for Iowa. That includes 74% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans
Those who describe themselves as independent voters are slightly more likely to support Greenfield’s views, with 44% saying she’s “about right,” and with just 25% saying she’s too liberal, compared to 33% overall.
Asked by the Register on Thursday whether Greenfield would support expanding the Supreme Court, spokesman Newton said in a statement that she would not.
“No, she doesn't,” he said. “And as Theresa said yesterday, this is not a priority for Iowans who are worried about losing their health care if the lawsuit Joni Ernst supports is successful. Theresa believes the best way to make our democracy more representative for all Iowans is to end political corruption by banning corporate PACs, banning dark money and banning members of Congress from becoming lobbyists. Those are all crucial reforms that Senator Ernst refuses to support.”
Could SCOTUS hearings give Ernst a national spotlight?
During Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s 2018 confirmation, the Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearings were televised and helped elevate the profiles of some Democrats who later ran for president, including Democratic vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris.
Though the proceedings could take Ernst’s attention away from the campaign trail, her position on the committee could give her a national platform.
“I really think what Sen. Ernst needs to do in this case is her job,” Kaufmann said. “My guess is that every question that's asked by every single member of the Senate is going to be potential for lifting that particular senator up to a national level. At this point, with less than 40 days left (until) the election, my guess is Joni Ernst isn't worried about lifting her name up to any level," except for doing her job on behalf of Iowans.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
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