Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) take on the San Diego Padres (14-14) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at PETCO Park at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 5-2 last year
The Phillies head to the West Coast after taking Thursday's game 5-0 against the Reds in Cincinnati. It stopped a 2-game losing streak that followed a 7-game winning streak. After a slow start to the season, the Phils are 8-2 over the last 10 and have drawn within 2 1/2 games of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. OF Kyle Schwarber has yet to find it as he's 4-for-36 (.111) with 3 of those hits leaving the park in the last 10 games.
The Friars must have been ready to leave Denver as they dropped Thursday's game 10-9. They were up 9-4 before giving up 6 runs in the 8th to split the 4-game series. Hot-hitting rookie OF Jackson Merrill missed Thursday's game with a groin injury, but he's expected to be available Friday. He's hitting .318 with 1 HR and 12 RBIs. He's at a cool +500 if you're looking to get in on him for NL Rookie of the Year.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Nola (3-1, 3.16 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K against Chicago White Sox Sunday
- Has a 1.81 ERA in his last 4 starts since allowing 6 ER in his 1st start
- Last 5 regular season starts against Padres: 1-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 K in 35 IP
Musgrove (3-2, 5.74 ERA ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB 3 SO Sunday against Toronto Blue Jays
- 4 career regular season starts vs. PHI: 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 24 K in 24 IP
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Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
I give the Phils the edge here. Nola has been amazing since his 1st start. Current Padres have hit just .196 against Nola in 49 plate appearances. Opposing Phils have hit just .235 off Musgrove in 120 PAs, but something isn't right with him. His fastball has dropped from 93.1 mph to 92.3 mph thus far.
Take the PHILLIES -115.
Run line/Against the spread
Nola has 7 and 9 K's in his last 2 starts, and he has fanned 10 and 11 Padres in his last 2 starts against them. San Diego is the 5th-toughest to K, but I like the value on AARON NOLA OVER 5.5 K'S (+125).
Over/Under
The Padres are 9th with 5 runs per game (RPG), and the Phils are tied for 14th at 4.3 RPG. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. It's slated to be a chilly, 60 degrees with a 13-mph straight-line wind from left field to right.
So I think this is going Over, but most books have fallen back to 7.5.
PASS on the 8 number and wait for an Over 7.5.
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