Trying to guess the outcome of a wrestling dual meet based solely on records is a big roll of the dice.
So to try to analyze the District 3 Class AAA first-round pairing of No. 6 seed Chambersburg vs. No. 11 seed Garden Spot, which is at 5 p.m. Tuesday at Cedar Cliff H.S., using only records would be a big guess.
One thing Trojan coach Doug Rine is hoping for is that his team's individual records, which include only seven wrestlers with winning records, are skewed somewhat by the competition Chambersburg has faced this year.
By wrestling in the ultra-tough Walsh Ironman, Beast of the East and the Escape the Rock, every Trojan picked up at least two losses, except for champion Garett Hammond in the ETR.
"We'll have to see how their schedule prepares them, compared to how ours has," Chambersburg coach Doug Rine said.
The Trojans, whose 14-3 record was the school's best-ever dual record in the regular season, and the Spartans (13-4) had only two common opponents this year. Against Mifflin County, Chambersburg earned a hard-fought 31-23 win at home 12 days ago, while Garden Spot was defeated 52-17 by the Huskies in an early-season duals tournament.
The other common opponent was No. 1 seed Central Dauphin, which beat the Trojans 49-18 and Garden Spot 45-15.
It appears that the Spartans have a few more lineup changes they could make, while Rine could opt to bump some of his wrestlers up a weight.
Some of the best matchups may be in the lightweights - at 120, Chambersburg's Garrett Kyner (22-10) vs. Chance Norris (21-7) and at 126, David Rump (20-6) vs. Zac Martin (18-6).
The Trojans have two state-ranked wrestlers - Hammond (152) is ranked third and Tanner Shoap (113) is No. 5. For Garden Spot, Ben Swarr (170-182) is No. 4, and Nick Cook (132) and Tanner Leid (145) are both 14th.
The winner will meet the winner of Cedar Cliff (19-1) vs. Governor Mifflin (14-4) at 7 p.m.
Ed Gotwals can be reached at 262-4755 and firstname.lastname@example.org.
vs. Garden Spot (13-4)
Chbg. listed first
106 - Colin Runshaw (18-9) vs. Lester Stover (6-13)
113 - Tanner Shoap (26-7) vs. Tyler Marburger (13-13)
120 - Garrett Kyner (22-10) vs. Chance Norris (21-7)
126 - David Rump (20-6) vs. Zac Martin (18-6)
132 - David Law (5-14) vs. Nick Cook (26-2)
138 - John Hughes (5-5) or Steven Smith (6-11) vs. Alex Aharouian (7-3) or Kory Mintoro (5-1)
145 - Smith or James McKenzie (7-14) vs. Tanner Leid (21-5) or Will Finkey (18-10)
152 - Garett Hammond (33-4) vs. Leid or Finkey
160 - Calvin O'Farrell (18-10) vs. Matt Christie (11-12) or Dan Swarr (8-5)
170 - Adam Tardosky (7-15) vs. Ben Swarr (25-2) or Jake Riehl (7-10)
182 - Dontez King (20-8) vs. B.Swarr or Riehl
195 - Devon Williams (7-14) vs. Ben Weaver (2-10)
220 - Collin Hansley (6-20) vs. Mike Bressi (10-9) or Chris Trostle (3-7)
285 - Cameron Kiger (10-16) vs. Jake Mueller (4-11)